After the Cascade

And it was a cascade for me in more ways than one...

For the benefit of people asking me about my take on recent events, especially in the light of yesterday's massive (relatively speaking) rally at Makati, I'm posting that part of my email to the Piraeus Group on the latest developments of Gloriagate.

Another thing, before I paste the excerpt: there is a trick in making a rally look bigger on cam. Remember those aerial photos of the rally? It looks like a lot of people were there, right? Although admittedly 30k is a lot of people, it looks bigger shot that way because the "pinpricks" and "dots" that represent the heads of people blend in a mish-mash kind of way with the gray ferrocrete of the street. So it looks jam-packed.

Also, a camera, even one with a wide-angle lens, can only capture so much of a scene. If you take a shot of the central activity area - say, near the Aquino monument - at a certain angle, then it really looks big even with that ground-level shot. But if you pan the cam around, you'll see that the crowds don't go farther than a few hundred meters from the center of the activity.

Now, for the excerpt:

To those of you asking what will happen to the country... my initial read is that, because of what happened in "The Longest Friday" (or "Presscon Friday", as I call it), GMA stands to stay in power at least until the SONA. If we go the impeachment route - which seems highly probable right now - then... 2 months? If she'll get kicked out, it'll probably be early next year or late this year. If this reaches December, then the Oust-GMA movement will be dead at least until the middle of January 2006, and by then many of the politicians would be thinking of May 2007.

Ah. Oh. Oh shit. That's right...

God help me and for once I wish I can be wrong with this... but I think the Oust-GMA groups will try at least one more escalation and cascade situation like with TLF. They have to. Oh my God...

1. If this reaches September, how can you mob any students from the moderate schools? Finals is near.

2. If this reaches December, or even November, the natural calming effect of yuletide on Filipinos will most likely dampen enthusiasm for the protests as much as it did - or even more so - when we did the RIO back in 2000. C'mon, people, we were there, remember? We all know what December did to the RIO.

3. If somehow GMA reaches January 2006... all I see there is either (a) lack of interest as many politicians begin gearing up for the 2007 elections, or (b) fatigue will set in. Revolts and protests on the magnitude of a near-EDSA cannot be sustained overtime in the same way you can't stay angry for a truly long period of time.

So I think the opposition will once again escalate the situation to cascade it like with the TLF. But... that's a dangerous gambit because they've thrown so much against GMA and she's still there! Like someone I admire a lot said last night, this whole "Gloriagate" thing will make a fascinating thesis. I mean, a very unpopular president has managed to hold on to power despite (at least!) three very major cascade situations... amazing... And the last one was throwing everything (and everyone) including the kitchen sink and all the stinky bits at the bottom of the drain. Yet the little lady is still there... how fascinating...

I don't know what the Oust-GMA side will do for another escalation-cascade manuever. Many of the key ingredients were used up last July 8 with little effect except to further damage the economy and give the pro-GMA people a means to circle the wagons and dig in. In military strategy, the one on defense always has the advantage in a war of attrition, even if outgunned and outnumbered. And right now it's fast becoming a war of attrition, with advantage back to Gloria - who's on defense - after TLF fizzled and the CBCP gave out its statement.

But they (the anti-Gloria forces) have to. Because time isn't with them. Aside from the socio-cultural and political angle, there's also the economic. Eventually, the protests will take a toll on the economy that those people asking her to step down will begin looking like economic saboteurs. I'm not kidding: let's say you see that the forex rate is, say, 60:1, then you see the rallyists at Makati / Mendiola / Wherever, what would you think? Especially if you keep hearing the news as, "the political instability is bringing the economy down..." All GMA has to spin it is by saying, hey, I'm trying to do my job here but these (censored) want to be in power and they're doing all these rallies and down-with-gov't acts for that and making the economy go down. She doesn't even have to refute any statements from thereon. When the economy goes really down and people are still shouting "Gloria out" without more solid proof than what's come out now... the protest is dead.

So expect an escalation once again in the next few days

Not Exactly (Another) Gloriagate Post

Well, yes, I was thinking about doing one. I mean, it's the hottest topic of the day, and I'm supposed to be a Mentat. Like what Thufir said, you can't stop analyzing your data.

Unless, some part of you decides to... take a leave of absence...

Ha, ha, I'm actually irritated at the anti-Gloria forces not exactly out of a sense of indignation over the mess they made of the economy, but because they screwed up my routine. Since when did I complain that I really can't take my frap anymore?

And why is it soo much better to jusy play R.O.S.E (oh, yes, it rocks big time...) and DW4: Empires than listen to another bit of news on this damnable Gloriagate?

Since when did I become so...

Ha, ha, as if I don't know the answer to that.

And maybe because my systems are beginning to realize that we are, indeed, in the "lemmings" scenario. How hilarious that Gloria fell for it, admitting over nationwide media that, yesh, it wash mai voiice in the tapesh. How stupid can the Palace pol and media ops can be? Now it's escalated and all these leaders are taking the "moral high ground" by asking her to resign.

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. Fucking Lemmings...

It's soooooo... no, not stupid. All those "middle forces" that have called for her resignation on moral grounds, or because, regardless of guilt, she has lost her mandate to govern, do have a point. If you had stood on EDSA during People Power II, how can you condone what the President did?

But, but...

I wish... I wish they'd thought on it some more. Go past the surface issue of morality, legality and propriety. Look at the dynamics and background of the forces moving and contending the Gloriagate. Ask the questions many wouldn't want to hear: yes, yes, morality and all is dandy, but, children, why now? Why was it just revealed? Why is the opposition so hot to get people on the streets when they can use constitutional measures to take her down? Where are the people who actually did the operation? Surely, if it was ISAFP, and with a divided military, someone should have "rescued" these men if they were incarcerated?

There are so many questions... yet so many of those who've come out for Gloria's resignation have not looked past the morality and propriety issue. This is a little bit off tangent as an analogy, but it's like talking peace with a warmonger: do you honestly expect the other side to smile and shake your hand and leave you in peace? People tend to judge other people through their own values and perceptions, but he/she isn't you. It's like the sacking of Baghdad. The Caliph surrendered after a lengthy siege, hoping to at least have his people and the rich culture in the center of the Muslim world spared the ravages of war and plunder. Unfrotunately for the Caliph, he was suing peace from the Mongol Horde. Check your history books to find out how gruesome it was after they hacked the Caliph and his party to pieces right in front of the gates of Baghdad.

Has anyone really asked themselves why the other side(s) are acting the way they are, even if the call is the same? Do they honestly think that

You see, I've gone beyond the "surface" issues beacuse what we have here is a classic struggle for a country's future. We're talking endgame scenarios, of what will happen if Force A gets their wish, or if Force B does this and that. You skip the surface issues because you know all the sides in this war except maybe for yours plays a very, very dirty game and they don't think in terms of what's good for the people or not. The Opposition wants to be back in power through extra-consti means because they know they will never regain it evermore. The Left see in this a wonderful opportunity to inch closer to their goal. The military thinks that this time may be it, after soo many failed coups.

Gloria has failed us big time, that's not under debate. We all know that. But this isn't the RIO. This is post-PP2, where sociocivic fatigue has set in and the world is much, much darker than when the '90s came along. Back then, there were choices.

Now, what are your choices? Do you even have any?

Honestly, has anyone even considered what will happen in a post-Gloria scenario?

Here's one, for the "Phyrric Constitutional Victory" scenario: Gloria resigns, or is forced to, or gets impeached. Let's say Loren's dispute of the elections fizzles, so Noli really is the Prez now. Let's disregard who he chooses as VP.

Ask yourselves: will the Opposition and the Left settle for this? People, they want a junta because there is no other way for them to sieze power.

Noli will be subjected to intense pressure. Maybe he has a chance, if he chooses a Liberal as his VP because the LP has the network, the resources and the people to back him up. How about the Nacionalista's? Maybe a Villar VP-ship will see the NP grow in numbers again, but can you trust political turncoats? And can Villar not take advantage of all that political windfall? But these are turncoats and trapos; when the pressure gets too intense, they'll leave Noli hanging in the breeze.

So who does he turn to? ABS? Maybe, whether or not he disassociates himself from the media giant. So now you can hit him with allegations of Ch. 2 being the puppetmaster this time, and isn't it the Lopezes who own both Ch. 2 and Meralco?

Let's say GMA resigns in... five weeks. Let's give her until August. September she's out, Noli steps in.

In less than six months, he's also going out...

Ah-ha-ha-ha. Why am I so damned pessimistic? Why do I dream of holding the line, alone, for the Union as our forces flee from a surging mass of anti-Gloria / pro-Erap / Radical Left tidal wave?

Why do I soooo much want to...

*sigh*

Does Rock Ed have any activity soon? I need to do something positive and immediate-feedback, because all this is starting to get to me.

And I'm depressed already...

*sigh*

Hope, and the Multiplication of It

No, this is not a Gloriagate post. Believe me, I've tried several times to do some along those lines shortly after it burst into the scene - and, really, there are times I wish I was wrong when the precog is a bad one - but time and circumstance have prevented me from doing so. You should see the drafts...

Instead, I'd like to talk about a little something I went to Friday evening (it being 3 in the morning of Saturday, 2 July 2005, when I write this). Besides, you want more on Gloriagate, go to PCIJ's blog.

When this person who came by the rather unique nickname of Gang presented Rock Ed Philippines during the June 2005 CORE Session of the UCSC, a lot of thoughts came to my mind, some of them rather not good. I guess I was thinking like some so-called "veteran" of the last four years of intense political warfare and dozens of failed attempts at social engineering: you've seen it all, come through it all, and what have you got to show for it? Another political battle. You've stared into the abyss so long that you think it's beginning to wave back and call you friend...

But my curiosity was piqued. Rock Ed. The concepts behind it - alternative education to bring about upliftment - sounded familiar, maybe all too familiar, and you wonder what could be new here. We stood on EDSA in 2001, dammit. We went through the bloody PUNK and the 2002 NAPC Youth Summit. We defended Davide, remember? And am I not UCSC? Did we not coordinate the (supposed) forces of change as the Coordinating Council of KOMPIL II Youth? What was Youth Alliance, then?

But go I did. And glad I was that I did.

Maybe it was the sheer... audacity of it. As Jaime Garchitorena put it, we were as... eclectic a bunch as you can find, coming from such diverse fields and backgrounds. Many NGOs and alternative educators there - the publishers of Adarna were there, alongside the marketing manager of MTV - but there were artists, theater actors, managers and the occassional lawyer and law student. Heck, we weren't even one-tenth of the forces my groups mobilized in the last four years since the RIO. These weren't the experienced field operatives and commanders of civil society and the student councils.

Yet somehow... it felt good. Maybe even much better than when Danny Javier announced the one millionth soul on EDSA that fateful January in 2001 when you thought a new dawn was breaking on the Philippines. I think I've been too long in the trenches of this War that I've forgotten how it is to be with, as the saying goes, "like minded individuals" that could still... dream and act on that dream. Yes, perhaps that's what's missing; I've contemplated for so long whether I should abandon the War and let it all go hang because... because the realities of life in the front lines of the Movement eventually does takes its toll on you, on the spirit. You get so beaten up badly trying to hold that line you drew on the concrete with your blood that you can't lift your swollen eyes anymore. And in the last few years it has felt like such a lonely battle, what with the Piraeus scattered, the Union (until this new batch came along) rendered moribund, and the LP becoming more like... government...

The energy in the room was palpable. For the life of me I cannot remember the last time I've seen so much... hope, so much enthusiasm in a room full of young adults who were thinking of ways to do the hardest job of all: end poverty. Nationwide. In our lifetimes. Good Lord and a half, but do these guys have any idea of the sheer... scope of their - OUR! - goal? Do they know that we've been at the status quo with everything plus the kitchen sink yet it not only stood firm but co-opted so many of us into its staid and decayed structure?

Probably. Those weren't naive people there, despite their lineage and economic status. But, but...

... there are plans to buy a flatbed truck, paint it all over, turn it into a makeshift stage, and let it go around the country teaching kids in plazas and eskinitas about issues and values...

... Glaxo has agreed to counterpart-fund a vaccination drive, and Batanes is first on the list January 2006...

... how about wrapping three buildings in Makati with white ribbon - the symbol of the Global Action Against Poverty - including, as Jaime added to the idea, Oakwood, to transform it from a symbol of rebellion into one of hope...

... or how about flooding Malacañang with postcards that ask the President to make good her promise to deal with povery...

Personally, I like the roving school idea best, and I'm wracking my brain as to where we can find funding and non-monetary support for it. But the other ideas, some of them even seeming so simple as compared to those bloody "big" projects of ours in the last four years - ah, yes, the PUNK... there are nights I still wonder whether it made a difference or was I just a party to wasting more than P2 million? - yet their probable effects...

And the people themselves... you'd think that everybody has degenerated into versions of the crass politico or me-first entities that either leave the country to earn more or stay here yet waste all their talent in call centers (and, again, let me make it clear that I have absolutely nothing against call centers; they have made the lives of many ordinary young men and women better without the social cost of overseas employment. But to hear so many in my circle who so easily went that way... or went corporate... *sigh*). It was just... great to hear other people ask the questions you've been asking for so long, or think and feel the same way about issues like irresponsible wastage disposal or road values.

And - heh, heh - being with the Rock Ed people made me realize just what kind of creature five years of political work has done to me. I actually wanted to stand up and ask for proposals and concept papers of these projects to be given to me so I can show them to funders... It's a good I've gotten a hold of my leap-before-looking mentality, or I would've probably embarassed myself... I was actually compartmentalizing my new group's dreams in the black and white of bureaucracy, and somehow that felt rather... wrong... Oh, sure, there will probably be a time when we have to do that, show a potential donor a proj prop, but... not now...

I don't know where this will lead; I am still a creature of the World I have lived in and fought (and nearly died so many times) for since the founding of the UCSC in 1998, after all. I did not get my position of Strategic Director because of any other reason save that of my skill as an analyst and gatherer of information. So I can't help but wonder about all these plans when they start coming up against that wall called the status quo. But that's the tired, overly-cynical, and near-hopeless person who's become a casualty of the very forces he tried to harness for the Bright Tomorrow.

But... just how did revolutions start, anyway? With a few men and women who believed in a certain ideal and were willing to fight for their cause. How did the Berlin Wall - and communism - fall? When so many people pushed that no guns or tanks of a repressive regime could cower.

Perhaps that really is what appealed to me: the people. Not too many, yes, not the battalions that we gathered on EDSA... but dedicated all to the ideal of ending poverty, in whatever form it may be from what I can gather from the conversations. And that's what's important: knowing that when you light a candle in the dark, you're not alone. Because so many people lighting their own little candle can banish the darkest of nights... and that wall isn't so big and tough if more than one person is pushing to bring it down...